Research article - Peer-reviewed, 2016
Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections
Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Ledesma, Jose; Teutschbein, Claudia; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, HjalmarAbstract
There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35% when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.Published in
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences2016, volume: 20, number: 7, pages: 2811-2825
Authors' information
Oni, Stephen
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Forest Ecology and Management
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment
Ledesma, Jose
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment
Teutschbein, Claudia
Uppsala University
Buttle, Jim
Trent University
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Forest Ecology and Management
Associated SLU-program
SLU Future Forests
Sustainable Development Goals
SDG13 Climate action
UKÄ Subject classification
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Environmental Sciences
Climate Research
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Publication Identifiers
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016
URI (permanent link to this page)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/77026