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Review article2016Peer reviewedOpen access

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

Urban, M. C.; Bocedi, G.; Hendry, A. P.; Mihoub, J. -B.; Pe'er, G.; Singer, A.; Bridle, J. R.; Crozier, L. G.; De Meester, L.; Godsoe, W.; Gonzalez, A.; Hellmann, J. J.; Holt, R. D.; Huth, A.; Johst, K.; Krug, C. B.; Leadley, P. W.; Palmer, S. C. F.; Pantel, J. H.; Schmitz, A.;
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Abstract

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Published in

Science
2016, Volume: 353, number: 6304, article number: aad8466

    Sustainable Development Goals

    SDG13 Climate action
    SDG15 Life on land

    UKÄ Subject classification

    Ecology

    Publication identifier

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466

    Permanent link to this page (URI)

    https://res.slu.se/id/publ/78491