Abstract

With the expected rising temperatures, outbreaks of insect pests may be more frequent, which can have large consequences on forest ecosystems and may therefore negatively affect the forestry sector. In order to be better able to predict where, but not if, outbreaks may occur in future we investigated the potential future (2070) geographical distribution of 30 prospective insect pest species (Coleoptera and Lepidoptera) by applying species distribution modelling. We also assessed the geographical extent to which the boreal forest in Sweden may be affected. We found that numerous species may experience large increases in their potential distribution in future, which may result in outbreaks in new areas. It is therefore likely that more trees will be infested by pests in future, which may have large implications for the Swedish forestry sector.

Keywords

climate change; forestry; insects; Norway spruce; pests; Scots pine; species distribution modelling

Published in

Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research
2016, Volume: 31, number: 1, pages: 29-39

SLU Authors

• Hof, Anouschka

  • Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    
  • Umeå University

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts


UKÄ Subject classification

Environmental Sciences
Ecology


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02827581.2015.1052751

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/79576