Skip to main content
SLU publication database (SLUpub)
Research article - Peer-reviewed, 2016

Modeling Anthropogenic Fire Occurrence in the Boreal Forest of China Using Logistic Regression and Random Forests

Guo, Futao; Zhang, Lianjun; Jin, Sen; Tigabu, Mulualem; Su, Zhangwen; Wang, Wenhui


Frequent and intense anthropogenic fires present meaningful challenges to forest management in the boreal forest of China. Understanding the underlying drivers of human-caused fire occurrence is crucial for making effective and scientifically-based forest fire management plans. In this study, we applied logistic regression (LR) and Random Forests (RF) to identify important biophysical and anthropogenic factors that help to explain the likelihood of anthropogenic fires in the Chinese boreal forest. Results showed that the anthropogenic fires were more likely to occur at areas close to railways and were significantly influenced by forest types. In addition, distance to settlement and distance to road were identified as important predictors for anthropogenic fire occurrence. The model comparison indicated that RF had greater ability than LR to predict forest fires caused by human activity in the Chinese boreal forest. High fire risk zones in the study area were identified based on RF, where we recommend increasing allocation of fire management resources.


human-caused fire; driving factors; forest fire; Daxing'an Mountains; ROC curve

Published in

2016, Volume: 7, number: 11, article number: 250
Publisher: MDPI AG

    Associated SLU-program


    Sustainable Development Goals

    SDG15 Life on land
    SDG13 Climate action
    SDG11 Sustainable cities and communities

    UKÄ Subject classification

    Forest Science

    Publication Identifiers


    Permanent link to this page (URI)