Abstract

The "Arab Spring" has always been portrayed in Egypt aspolitically motivated revolts against decades ofdictatorial regimes (Abu Hatab, 2014). From a scientificperspective however, way less attention has so far beenpaid to the question why the Arab spring movementoccurred precisely in early 2011, and not any time earlier,given that the political system had been in power alreadyfor decades (Abu Hatab, 2014). Furthermore, it has beenpointed out that the Arab spring coincided with a periodof volatile global food prices, which is potentiallyimportant given that Egypt is a net importer of food andthe world largest wheat importer.Indeed, many famous revolutions in history have oftencoincided with periods of food price inflation. Accordingto Arezki and Bruckner (2011), food prices play anessential role in social and political stability in developingcountries. This is because volatile food prices make bothsmallholder farmers and poor consumers increasinglyvulnerable to poverty (FAO, 2011). Moreover, poorconsumers spend a large budget share on food, thus, thelevel of food prices is important determinant of theirpurchasing power (Minten, 2007). Food prices alsoinfluence wage levels and employment within andoutside the food sector, and, thus, they have an impacton wage incomes of rural and urban poor (Headey andFan, 2008).The political system in Egypt had for decades sustainedits legitimacy by providing cheap subsidized food andbasic goods to the public in exchange for political loyalty(Harrigan, 2014). Nevertheless, the unprecedentedglobal food price spikes in 2008 and onwards, whichconcurred with a period of high levels of incomeinequality, poverty and youth unemployment, resultedin a steep rises in the cost of living and steady declines inliving standards of Egyptians. In this article, I hypothesizethat these socio-economic conditions together withfood price inflation have unraveled the social contract, asmany Egyptians had no longer been willing to tolerate arepressive and a dictatorial regime, and led to theoutbreak of the Arab Spring in early 2011.While little is known so far about the precise causalitybetween food prices, the role of various macroeconomicindicators and the emergence of socio-political unrest inEgypt, this article attempts to shed light on the role offood price volatility as an important underpinning to the2011 uprising. The next section reviews food price andsubsidy policies in Egypt in recent decades. The thirdsection analyzes selected socio-economic indicators inEgypt in the lead up to the 2011 uprisings. Sector fourhighlights the relationship between food price volatilityand political unrest in the context of the Arab Spring, andthe last section concludes sustainable policy directionsfor the agrifood policies in Egypt to cope with food pricevolatility and minimize the recurrence of political unrest.

Published in

CIHEAM Watch Letter
2016, number: 36, pages: 76-85
Publisher: CIHEAM

UKÄ Subject classification

Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalization Studies)
Agricultural Science
Economics


Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/81250