Shift in demand elasticities, road energy forecast and the persistence profile of shocks

Abstract

We forecast demand and investigate the shift in price and income elasticities and the persistent profile of shocks for diesel and gasoline fuels in the road transport sector in Ghana using annual data from 1971 to 2011. First, we find that gasoline and diesel demand are both price inelastic in the short- run, but the income elasticity for the former is inelastic and elastic for the latter. There is evidence of a shift in the long-run price and income elasticities after the eighties, We find that these elasticities differ between diesel and gasoline. We show that government decision to withdraw fuel subsidies will increase the energy efficiency gap in the diesel sector more than the gasoline sector. Using the Structural Cointegration VAR, we also show that government intervention in pricing of petroleum products in the road sector seems to be politically and not economically driven. Further, shocks are more persistent for diesel than gasoline. Last, road diesel and gasoline consumption are expected to increase but slow down between 2020 and 2030 with a possible dieselization of the economy. These results have important implications for government fuel tax policy and investment commitment in the road sector. (c) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords

Shift in demand elasticities; Forecast; Road energy; Persistence profile of shocks

Published in

Economic Modelling
2016, volume: 55, pages: 189-206
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

SLU Authors

• Adom, Philip Kofi

  • Department of Forest Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    
  • University of Professional Studies, Accra

Global goals (SDG)

SDG7 Affordable and clean energy
SDG9 Industry, innovation and infrastructure

UKÄ Subject classification

Economics

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.004

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/82852