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Research article2017Peer reviewedOpen access

The effects of ionic strength and organic matter on virus inactivation at low temperatures: general likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) as an alternative to least-squares parameter optimization for the fitting of virus inactivation models

Mayotte, Jean-Marc; Grabs, Thomas; Sutliff-Johansson, Stacy; Bishop, Kevin

Abstract

This study examined how the inactivation of bacteriophage MS2 in water was affected by ionic strength (IS) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) using static batch inactivation experiments at 4 A degrees C conducted over a period of 2 months. Experimental conditions were characteristic of an operational managed aquifer recharge (MAR) scheme in Uppsala, Sweden. Experimental data were fit with constant and time-dependent inactivation models using two methods: (1) traditional linear and nonlinear least-squares techniques; and (2) a Monte-Carlo based parameter estimation technique called generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The least-squares and GLUE methodologies gave very similar estimates of the model parameters and their uncertainty. This demonstrates that GLUE can be used as a viable alternative to traditional least-squares parameter estimation techniques for fitting of virus inactivation models. Results showed a slight increase in constant inactivation rates following an increase in the DOC concentrations, suggesting that the presence of organic carbon enhanced the inactivation of MS2. The experiment with a high IS and a low DOC was the only experiment which showed that MS2 inactivation may have been time-dependent. However, results from the GLUE methodology indicated that models of constant inactivation were able to describe all of the experiments. This suggested that inactivation time-series longer than 2 months were needed in order to provide concrete conclusions regarding the time-dependency of MS2 inactivation at 4 A degrees C under these experimental conditions.

Keywords

Virus inactivation; Uncertainty; Groundwater management; Bacteriophage MS2; Health

Published in

Hydrogeology Journal
2017, Volume: 25, number: 4, pages: 1063-1076
Publisher: SPRINGER

    Sustainable Development Goals

    SDG6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

    UKÄ Subject classification

    Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

    Publication identifier

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1559-3

    Permanent link to this page (URI)

    https://res.slu.se/id/publ/83549