Wangel, Josefin
- Royal Institute of Technology (KTH)
Abstract
This paper presents a new five-part method for developing goal-based socio-technical scenarios. In the first part, Scenario 'Seeds' are identified or created. The Scenario Content part focuses on the question of what could be changed and by whom, a fundamental element being iterative identification of objects and actors of change. Scenario Outcome focuses on the question of how to assess the potential contribution of these changes, estimated through modelling the scenario in terms of energy usage systems. Scenario Process explores the question of how to develop and represent a scenario in terms of a process of governance. Scenario Content, Outcome and Process are then combined into a Final Scenario which is further assessed and evaluated using qualitative methods. The development of Scenario Content is tested and exemplified in this paper through a scenario study of green mobility in the district of Bromma in Stockholm, Sweden. Preliminary findings indicate that by supporting explicit inclusion of actors and 'the social' aspect, the what-who iteration in Scenario Content also helps identify opportunities and obstacles of a social character, thus contributing to creation of socio-technically more consistent and comprehensive scenarios. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Scenario; Situations of opportunity; Backcasting; Socio-technical; Methodology; Mobility
Published in
Futures
2013, volume: 47, pages: 79-92
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD
SLU Authors
UKÄ Subject classification
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Publication identifier
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.005
Permanent link to this page (URI)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/84243