Abstract

Compared to many manufacturing industries, there have been few major improvements over the past few decades in the productivity, profitability, or the environmental impact of construction. However, driven by institutional changes, promotion campaigns, and technological development in the 1990s, novel industrial wood-frame multi-story construction (WMC) practices have been emerging in some European countries. The aim of the study is to explore the WMC market potential in Europe by combining two complementary approaches: Top-down scenario analysis and bottom-up innovation diffusion analysis. The results show that the WMC diffusion is heavily dependent on the regulatory framework and the structure of the construction industry. The risk-averse nature of the construction value chain resisting the uptake of new practices appears to be a more significant hindrance for the future market potential of WMC, compared to the possible competition from alternative construction practices. It would require both increasing competition within the WMC sector and increasing co-operation between wood product suppliers and the construction sector to attract investments, to reduce costs, and to make the WMC practices more credible throughout the construction value chain. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Keywords

Diffusion; Engineered wood products; Multi-story wood-frame construction; Operational environment; Scenario analysis

Published in

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2015, Volume: 99, pages: 181-196

UKÄ Subject classification

Agricultural Science


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.07.002

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/86448