Modelling the effects of climate and land-use change on the hydrochemistry and ecology of the River Wye (Wales)

Abstract

Interactions between climate change and land use change might have substantial effects on aquatic ecosystems, but are still poorly understood. Using theWelsh RiverWye as a case study, we linked models of water quality (Integrated Catchment - INCA) and climate (GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and IPSL - Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) under greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to drive a bespoke ecosystem model that simulated the responses of aquatic organisms. The potential effects of economic and social development were also investigated using scenarios fromthe EUMARS project (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems andWater Resources under Multiple Stress). Longitudinal position along the river mediated response to increasing anthropogenic pressures. Upland locations appeared particularly sensitive to nutrient enrichment or potential re-acidification compared to lowland environments which are already eutrophic. These results can guide attempts to mitigate future impacts and reiterate the need for sensitive land management in upland, temperate environments which are likely to become increasingly important to water supply and biodiversity conservation as the effects of climate change intensify. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords

Climate change; Water quality; River Wye; Nitrogen; Ecology

Published in

Science of the Total Environment
2018, Volume: 627, pages: 733-743 Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

SLU Authors

• Ledesma, Jose

  • Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG6 Clean water and sanitation
SDG13 Climate action
SDG15 Life on land


UKÄ Subject classification

Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Ecology


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.295

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/95364