Ahmed, Mukhtar
- Arid Agriculture University
- Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Research article2022Peer reviewedOpen access
Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
Guarin, Jose Rafael; Martre, Pierre; Ewert, Frank; Webber, Heidi; Dueri, Sibylle; Calderini, Daniel; Reynolds, Matthew; Molero, Gemma; Miralles, Daniel; Garcia, Guillermo; Slafer, Gustavo; Giunta, Francesco; Pequeno, Diego N. L.; Stella, Tommaso; Ahmed, Mukhtar; Alderman, Phillip D.; Basso, Bruno; Berger, Andres G.; Bindi, Marco; Bracho-Mujica, Gennady; Cammarano, Davide; Chen, Yi; Dumont, Benjamin; Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi; Fereres, Elias; Ferrise, Roberto; Gaiser, Thomas; Gao, Yujing; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hochman, Zvi; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jorgen E.; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Pullens, Johannes W. M.; Rodriguez, Alfredo; Roetter, Reimund P.; Ruiz Ramos, Margarita; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Senapati, Nimai; Siebert, Stefan; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Stockle, Claudio; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Wang, Enli; Weber, Tobias Karl David; Xiao, Liujun; Zhang, Zhao; Zhao, Chuang; Zhao, Jin; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold
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Abstract
Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 +/- 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.
Keywords
yield increase; radiation use efficiency; wheat potential yield; crop model ensemble; global food security
Published in
Environmental Research Letters
2022, Volume: 17, number: 12, article number: 124045
Publisher: IOP Publishing Ltd
SLU Authors
Sustainable Development Goals
End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
UKÄ Subject classification
Agricultural Science
Environmental Sciences
Publication identifier
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c
Permanent link to this page (URI)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/120748