Abstract

The calculation of robust estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions due to agriculture is essential to support the framing of the Brazilian climate change mitigation policy. Information on the future development of land use and land cover change (LULCC) under the combination of various driving factors operating at different spatial scale levels, e.g., local land use policy and global demands for agricultural commodities, is required. The spatially explicit land use model, LandSHIFT, was applied to calculate a set of high-resolution land use scenarios for Southern Amazonia. The time frame of the analysis was 2010-2030. Based on the generated maps, emission coefficients were applied to calculate annual N2O, CH4, and CO2 emissions from agricultural soils (croplands and pastures). The results indicate that future land use pattern and the resultant greenhouse gas emissions in Southern Amazonia will be strongly determined by global and regional demands for agricultural commodities, as well as by the level of intensification of agriculture and the implementation of conservation policies.

Keywords

Land use and land cover change; Southern Amazonia; Scenarios; Agriculture; Greenhouse gas emissions

Published in

Regional Environmental Change
2018, Volume: 18, number: 1, pages: 129-142

SLU Authors

• Meurer, Katharina

  • Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
SDG13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts


UKÄ Subject classification

Other Natural Sciences not elsewhere specified


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1235-0

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/91674