Forest Productivity Decreases in Response to Recent Changes in Vegetation Structure and Climate in the Latitudinal Extremes of the European Continent

Abstract

AimClimate change is driving increasingly frequent and intense extreme climatic events, pushing many forests worldwide beyond their physiological thresholds. Despite the major role played by forests in the global carbon cycle, climate change threatens the future potential for carbon sequestration in forests. Hence, studies of recent changes in stand productivity and the underlying drivers over large areas are critical to understand and assess the forest carbon sink. We aimed to describe recent changes in forest productivity in the latitudinal extremes of the European continent and the role of climate and climate change in driving these patterns. LocationLatitudinal extremes of the European continent (Spain and Sweden). Time PeriodFrom 1980s to the present. Major Taxa StudiedTrees. MethodsWe analysed data from > 13,900 plots in Mediterranean, temperate and boreal regions using three consecutive surveys from the Spanish and Swedish National Forest Inventories (NFI). Generalised linear models were parameterised to assess how forest structure, climate and climatic anomalies (mean temperature, annual precipitation, drought, heatwaves) influenced forest productivity across two time periods. ResultsDespite increases in stand basal area, forest productivity declined over time. The effects of recent climate change intensified, with temperature anomalies increasingly and negatively impacting productivity in most regions. Region-specific effects were observed: Heatwaves and reduced precipitation in the Mediterranean, intensified droughts in temperate regions and increased precipitation in boreal areas further influenced productivity dynamics. Main ConclusionsOur results showed a marked decrease in forest productivity due to climatic warming over time and a differential sensitivity to extreme climatic events across regions, which will affect multiple dependent ecosystem functions. Our findings provide further evidence that altered forest productivity due to climate change may hinder the carbon sink capacity of European forests.

Keywords

climate change; drought; extreme climatic events; heatwaves; National Forest Inventory; temporal trends

Published in

Global Ecology and Biogeography
2025, volume: 34, number: 2, article number: e70011
Publisher: WILEY

SLU Authors

• Dahlgren, Jonas

  • Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Forest Science
Climate Science

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70011

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/140957