Nitrogen in the Baltic Sea—policy implications of stock effects

Abstract

We develop an optimal control model for cost-effective management of pollution, including two state variables, pollution stock and ecosystem quality. We apply it to Baltic Sea pollution by nitrogen leachates from agriculture. We present a sophisticated, non-linear model of leaching abatement costs, and a simple model of nitrogen stocks. We find that significant abatement is achievable at reasonable cost, despite the countervailing effects of existing agricultural policies such as price supports. Successful abatement should lead to lower nitrogen stocks in the sea in 5 years or less. However, the rate of ecosystem recovery is less certain. The results are highly dependent on the rate of self-cleaning of the Baltic Sea, and less so on the discount rate. Choice of target has a radical effect on the abatement path chosen. Cost-effectiveness demands such a choice, and should therefore be used with care when stock effects are present. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords

stock pollutants; ecosystem quality; dynamic optimization; agricultural nitrogen pollution; Baltic Sea

Published in

Journal of Environmental Management
2002, volume: 66, number: 1, pages: 91-103
Publisher: ACADEMIC PRESS LTD ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD

SLU Authors

• Hart, Robert

  • Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Brady, Mark

  • Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Economics

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.2002.0579

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/50703