Fungicide treatments in winter wheat: The probability of profitability

Abstract

The marginal return of fungicide applications against leaf blotch diseases in winter wheat fields were analysed based on data from field trials performed in 1996-2011 in Sweden. Yield increases from fungicide treatments were compared with data on growing conditions (precipitation, previous crop, nitrogen fertilization, soil type, and disease severity) using logistic regression. After identification and quantification of single factors with good predictive ability, multiple factor models were analysed. A model with five factors; rain days in April/May and three weeks before ear emergence, disease severity at ear emergence, soil type and previous crop, identified situations when a fungicide treatment gave a positive marginal return. The sensitivity and specificity of the model was evaluated by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Keywords

Leaf blotch diseases; Logistic regression; ROC curves; Field trials

Published in

Crop Protection
2018, volume: 106, pages: 182-189

SLU Authors

• Twengström, Eva

  • Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Andersson, Björn

  • Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Djurle, Annika

  • Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Associated SLU-program

SLU Plant Protection Network

UKÄ Subject classification

Agricultural Science

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2017.12.018

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/93605