Abstract

Models that predict forest development are essential for sustainable forest management. Constructing growth models via regression analysis or fitting a family of sigmoid equations to construct compatible growth and yield models are two ways these models can be developed. In this study, four species-specific models were developed and compared. A compatible growth and yield stand basal area model and a five-year stand basal area growth model were developed for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). The models were developed using data from permanent inventory plots from the Swedish national forest inventory and long-term experiments. The species-specific models were compared, using independent data from long-term experiments, with a stand basal area growth model currently used in the Swedish forest planning system Heureka (Elfving model). All new models had a good, relatively unbiased fit. There were no apparent differences between the models in their ability to predict basal area development, except for the slightly worse predictions for the Norway spruce growth model. The lack of difference in the model comparison showed that despite the simplicity of the compatible growth and yield models, these models could be recommended, especially when data availability is limited. Also, despite using more and newer data for model development in this study, the currently used Elfving model was equally good at predicting basal area. The lack of model difference indicate that future studies should instead focus on model development for heterogeneous forests which are common but lack in growth and yield modelling research.

Keywords

Picea abies; Pinus sylvestris; basal area; difference equation; long-term experiment; national forest inventory; regression

Published in

Silva Fennica
2022, Volume: 56, number: 2, article number: 10707
Publisher: FINNISH SOC FOREST SCIENCE-NATURAL RESOURCES INST FINLAND

SLU Authors

• Goude, Martin

  • Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Nilsson, Urban

  • Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Vico, Giulia

  • Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Associated SLU-program

SLU Forest Damage Center


Sustainable Development Goals

Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss


UKÄ Subject classification

Forest Science


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.10707

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/118608