Abstract

A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords

Forest dynamics; Population models; Natural resource management; Discounting; Virtual species; Sensitivity analysis

Published in

Journal of Environmental Management
2017, Volume: 197, pages: 404-414

SLU Authors

• Felton, Adam

  • Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Ranius, Thomas

  • Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Roberge, Jean-Michel

  • Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    
  • Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Öhman, Karin

  • Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Lämås, Tomas

  • Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Nilsson, Urban

  • Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Lundmark, Tomas

  • Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Nordin, Annika

  • Department of Forest Genetics and Plant Physiology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Associated SLU-program

Future Forests (until Jan 2017)
SLU Future Forests


Sustainable Development Goals

Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss


UKÄ Subject classification

Ecology


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.04.001

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/84400