Colonization and extinction dynamics and their link to the distribution of European trees at the continental scale

Abstract

Aim The population processes that drive tree species distribution are still widely debated. We test the hypotheses that metapopulation processes of colonization and extinction are linked to predictions of species distribution models. Location Europe: Spain, France, Germany, Finland and Sweden. Taxon Angiosperms and Gymnosperms. Methods For 17 tree species analysed, we fitted species distribution models (SDM) relating environmental variables to presence-absence data across Europe. Then, using independent data from national forest inventories across Europe, we tested whether colonization and extinction probabilities are related to SDM occurrence probabilities. Finally, we assessed the probability of presence at metapopulation equilibrium depending on colonization and extinction probabilities. Results We found that for most species at least one process (colonization/extinction) is related to SDM occurrence probability, but rarely both (only two species). Depending on the species, the link was either for colonization or for extinction, but relationships were generally weak. In addition, the metapopulation models tended to overestimate the occurrence probability at equilibrium. Main conclusions Our study shows that metapopulation processes are only weakly related to SDM occurrence probability and call for caution in extrapolating SDM models to metapopulation dynamics.

Keywords

European scale; metapopulation; patch occupancy model; SDM; species distribution; tree species

Published in

Journal of Biogeography
2022, volume: 49, number: 1, pages: 117-129
Publisher: WILEY

SLU Authors

• Dahlgren, Jonas

  • Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Ecology

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14286

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/115064