Rydén, Jesper
- Department of Energy and Technology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Conference paper2024Peer reviewed
Uncertainties in Estimation of a Possible Upper Limit for Environmental Extremes
Rydén, Jesper
Abstract
In statistical risk analysis, estimation of return levels is often of importance. In particular, the uncertainties of the estimates are crucial. The longer the return period, the more uncertain is the estimate of the return level, or phrased in terms of statistical modeling, the associated confidence intervals become wider. In this note, we examine closer the relationship between the return level and the upper limit occurring for the case of a negative shape parameter in a fitted generalized extreme value distribution. Examples based on sea level data close to Swedish nuclear power plants are given, as well as results from simulation studies. The findings may be of interest for planners and engineers that analyze extreme-value data for risk and safety analysis.
Keywords
estimation; international ocean; method; illustration; proceedings; extreme; distribution; artificial intelligence; thirty-fourth; ringhal
Published in
Title: Proceedings of the 34th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference
Publisher: ISOPE
Conference
The 34th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference (ISOPE), 2024, June 16-21, Rhodes, Greece
SLU Authors
UKÄ Subject classification
Probability Theory and Statistics
Permanent link to this page (URI)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/131764