Sammanfattning

Species interactions are known to structure ecological communities. Still, the influence of climate change on biodiversity has primarily been evaluated by correlating individual species distributions with local climatic descriptors, then extrapolating into future climate scenarios. We ask whether predictions on arctic arthropod response to climate change can be improved by accounting for species interactions. For this, we use a 14-year-long, weekly time series from Greenland, resolved to the species level by mitogenome mapping. During the study period, temperature increased by 2 degrees C and arthropod species richness halved. We show that with abiotic variables alone, we are essentially unable to predict species responses, but with species interactions included, the predictive power of the models improves considerably. Cascading trophic effects thereby emerge as important in structuring biodiversity response to climate change. Given the need to scale up from species-level to community-level projections of biodiversity change, these results represent a major step forward for predictive ecology.

Nyckelord

Arctic; Arthropoda; climate change; community assembly; food web; joint species distribution model; trophic cascade

Publicerad i

Ecography
2021, Volym: 44, nummer: 6, sidor: 885-896
Utgivare: WILEY

SLU författare

• Roslin, Tomas

  • Institutionen för ekologi, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    
  • Helsingin yliopisto

Globala målen

SDG15 Skydda, återställa och främja ett hållbart nyttjande av landbaserade ekosystem, hållbart bruka skogar, bekämpa ökenspridning, hejda och vrida tillbaka markförstöringen samt hejda förlusten av biologisk mångfald
SDG13 Vidta omedelbara åtgärder för att bekämpa klimatförändringarna och dess konsekvenser


UKÄ forskningsämne

Ekologi
Klimatforskning


Publikationens identifierare

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05547

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/111265