Sammanfattning

Fire is a major disturbance agent in the boreal forest, affecting the structure, dynamics and biogeochemical cycles in this biome. In the Asian section of boreal forest, the records of long-term fire history are few that limits our understanding of factors forcing regional fire dynamics. We presented an annually-resolved 352 year (1666-2017) fire chronology based on fire scars of Scots pine (Pines sylvestris L.) and Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb) from the Transbaikal area in the southeastern Siberia. Fire activity showed an increasing trend from 1720 to 1929 (R-2 = 0.80, P < 0.0001), and a significant decreasing trend from 1920 to 2010 (R-2 = 0.62, P < 0.001). We assessed the potential relationships between drought (as represented by the Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, and the Monthly Drought Code, MDC), ocean-atmosphere circulation and forest fire by Superposed epoch analyses, cross-wavelet analysis and Granger causality analysis. Increased fire activity was associated with stronger drought from previous winter to current summer of fire event years and positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) before and during major fire season (February and April to May), as revealed by superposed epoch analysis. Granger causality pointed to the significant role of drought in driving forest fires. Our findings provide insights into the climate drivers of forest fire activity and its prediction in the Transbaikal region.

Nyckelord

Forest fire; Fire history; Wildfire; Transbaikal; Granger causality; Natural disturbance regime

Publicerad i

Global and Planetary Change
2021, Volym: 207, artikelnummer: 103653
Utgivare: ELSEVIER

SLU författare

• Drobyshev, Igor

  • Institutionen för sydsvensk skogsvetenskap, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    
  • Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)
  • Росси́йская акаде́мия нау́к

Globala målen

SDG15 Skydda, återställa och främja ett hållbart nyttjande av landbaserade ekosystem, hållbart bruka skogar, bekämpa ökenspridning, hejda och vrida tillbaka markförstöringen samt hejda förlusten av biologisk mångfald


UKÄ forskningsämne

Skogsvetenskap


Publikationens identifierare

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103653

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/114154