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Forskningsartikel2023Vetenskapligt granskadÖppen tillgång

Climate targets in European timber-producing countries conflict with goals on forest ecosystem services and biodiversity

Blattert, Clemens; Monkkonen, Mikko; Burgas, Daniel; Di Fulvio, Fulvio; Caicoya, Astor Torano; Vergarechea, Marta; Klein, Julian; Hartikainen, Markus; Anton-Fernandez, Clara; Astrup, Rasmus; Emmerich, Michael; Forsell, Nicklas; Lukkarinen, Jani; Lundstrom, Johanna; Pitzen, Samuli; Poschenrieder, Werner; Primmer, Eeva; Snall, Tord; Eyvindson, Kyle

Sammanfattning

The role of increased timber harvests in reaching climate mitigation targets for European countries will be limited if the protection of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity is to be achieved, suggests an empirical forest model driven by future scenarios to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C in 2100.The European Union (EU) set clear climate change mitigation targets to reach climate neutrality, accounting for forests and their woody biomass resources. We investigated the consequences of increased harvest demands resulting from EU climate targets. We analysed the impacts on national policy objectives for forest ecosystem services and biodiversity through empirical forest simulation and multi-objective optimization methods. We show that key European timber-producing countries - Finland, Sweden, Germany (Bavaria) - cannot fulfil the increased harvest demands linked to the ambitious 1.5 degrees C target. Potentials for harvest increase only exists in the studied region Norway. However, focusing on EU climate targets conflicts with several national policies and causes adverse effects on multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity. We argue that the role of forests and their timber resources in achieving climate targets and societal decarbonization should not be overstated. Our study provides insight for other European countries challenged by conflicting policies and supports policymakers.

Publicerad i

Communications earth & environment
2023, Volym: 4, nummer: 1, artikelnummer: 119
Utgivare: SPRINGERNATURE

      SLU författare

        • Associerade SLU-program

        SLU Skogsskadecentrum

        Globala målen

        Skydda, återställa och främja ett hållbart nyttjande av landbaserade ekosystem, hållbart bruka skogar, bekämpa ökenspridning, hejda och vrida tillbaka markförstöringen samt hejda förlusten av biologisk mångfald
        Vidta omedelbara åtgärder för att bekämpa klimatförändringarna och dess konsekvenser

        UKÄ forskningsämne

        Skogsvetenskap
        Klimatforskning

        Publikationens identifierare

        DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00771-z

        Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

        https://res.slu.se/id/publ/122174