Sammanfattning

In the water management literature both the normal and log-normal distribution are commonly used to model stochastic water pollution. The normality assumption is usually motivated by the central limit theorem, while the log-normality assumption is often motivated by the need to avoid the possibility of negative pollution loads. We utilize the truncated normal distribution as an alternative to these distributions. Using probabilistic constraints in a cost-minimization model for the Baltic Sea, we show that the distribution assumption bias is between 1% and 60%. Simulations show that a greater difference is to be expected for data with a higher degree of truncation. Using the normal distribution instead of the truncated normal distribution leads to an underestimation of the true cost. On the contrary, the difference in cost when using the normal versus the log-normal can be positive as well as negative.

Nyckelord

Cost effectiveness; Water pollution; Chance-constrained programming; Log-normal distribution; Truncated normal distribution

Publicerad i

Environmental Modeling and Assessment
2009, Volym: 15, nummer: 4, sidor: 1-9
Utgivare: Springer

SLU författare

• Elofsson, Katarina

  • Institutionen för ekonomi, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

Globala målen

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SDG14 Bevara och nyttja haven och de marina resurserna på ett hållbart sätt för en hållbar utveckling


UKÄ forskningsämne

Fisk- och akvakulturforskning
Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap


Publikationens identifierare

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-009-9205-7

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/28972