Sammanfattning

In 1995, a disease control and intervention project was initiated in Malmöhus county in southern Sweden to limit the spread of penicillin-resistant pneumococci. Since most of the carriers of pneumococci are preschool children, and since most of the spread is believed to take place in day-care, a mathematical model, in the form of a stochastic process, for the spread in a day-care group was constructed. Effects of seasonal variation and size of the day-care group were particularly considered. The model was then used for comparing results from computer simulations without and with intervention. Results indicate that intervention is highly effective in day-care groups with more than ten children during the second half of the year

Nyckelord

epidemic model; stochastic process; infectious disease; pneumococci; disease intervention

Publicerad i

Statistics in Medicine
2005, Volym: 24, nummer: 23, sidor: 3593-3607

SLU författare

• Andersson Franko, Mikael

  • Institutionen för ekonomi, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/31152