Sammanfattning

Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008-2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2-0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO(2) emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m(3) sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.

Nyckelord

Climate change mitigation; Integrated modelling; Wood substitution; Forest economics; Forest management; Wood construction

Publicerad i

European Journal of Forest Research
2012, Volym: 131, nummer: 1, sidor: 131-144
Utgivare: SPRINGER

SLU författare

• Eriksson, Ola

  • Institutionen för skoglig resurshushållning, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

Globala målen

SDG13 Vidta omedelbara åtgärder för att bekämpa klimatförändringarna och dess konsekvenser


UKÄ forskningsämne

Förnyelsebar bioenergi
Skogsvetenskap


Publikationens identifierare

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-010-0463-3

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/45912