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Forskningsartikel2012Vetenskapligt granskad

Modelling the long term impact of climate change on the carbon budget of Lake Simcoe, Ontario using INCA-C

Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Molot, Lewis; Dillon, Peter

Sammanfattning

This study presents a process-based model of dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) in catchments draining into Lake Simcoe, Ontario. INCA-C, the Integrated Catchment model for Carbon, incorporates carbon biogeochemical processes in a terrestrial system with hydrologic flow paths to simulate watershed wide [DOC]. The model successfully simulates present-day inter-annual and seasonal [DOC] dynamics in tributaries draining catchments with mixed or contrasting land cover in the Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW). The sensitivity of INCA-C to soil moisture, hydrologic controls and land uses within a watershed demonstrates its significance as a tool to explore pertinent environmental issues specific to the LSW. Projections of climate change under A1B and A2 SRES scenarios suggest a continuous monotonic increase in [DOC] in surface waters draining into Lake Simcoe. Large variations in seasonal DOC dynamics are predicted to occur during summer with a possibility of displacement of summer [DOC] maxima towards winter and a prolongation of summer (DOC] levels into the autumn. INCA-C also predicts possible increases in dissolved inorganic carbon in some tributaries with rising temperature suggesting increased CO2 emissions from rivers as climate changes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nyckelord

Climate change; Dissolved organic carbon; INCA-C; Lake Simcoe; Surface water quality; Climate downscaling

Publicerad i

Science of the Total Environment
2012, Volym: 414, sidor: 387-403
Utgivare: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

      SLU författare

      • Globala målen

      SDG6 Säkerställa tillgången till och en hållbar förvaltning av vatten och sanitet för alla
      SDG13 Vidta omedelbara åtgärder för att bekämpa klimatförändringarna och dess konsekvenser

      UKÄ forskningsämne

      Fisk- och akvakulturforskning

      Publikationens identifierare

      DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.10.025

      Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

      https://res.slu.se/id/publ/56459