Sammanfattning

Urban sprawl and regional climate variability are major stresses on surface water resources in many places. The Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW) Ontario, Canada, is no exception. The LSW is predominantly agricultural but is experiencing rapid population growth because of its proximity to the Greater Toronto area. This has led to extensive land use changes that have impacted its water resources and altered run-off patterns in some rivers draining to the lake. Here, we use a paired-catchment approach, hydrological change detection modelling and remote sensing analysis of satellite images to evaluate the impacts of land use change on the hydrology of the LSW (1994 to 2008). Results show that urbanization increased up to 16% in Lovers Creek, the most urban-impacted catchment. Annual run-off from Lovers Creek increased from 239 to 442mm/year in contrast to the reference catchment (Black River at Washago) where run-off was relatively stable with an annual mean of 474mm/year. Increased annual run-off from Lovers Creek was not accompanied by an increase in annual precipitation. Discriminant function analysis suggests that early (1992-1997; pre-major development) and late (2004-2009; fully urbanized) periods for Lovers Creek separated mainly based on model parameter sets related to run-off flashiness and evapotranspiration. As a result, parameterization in either period cannot be used interchangeably to produce credible run-off simulations in Lovers Creek because of greater scatter between the parameters in canonical space. Separation of early and late-period parameter sets for the reference catchment was based on climate and snowmelt-related processes. This suggests that regional climatic variability could be influencing hydrologic change in the reference catchment, whereas urbanization amplified the regional natural hydrologic changes in urbanizing catchments of the LSW. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Nyckelord

paired watershed; HBV model; uncertainty assessment; urban hydrology; land use change; change detection; remote sensing; impervious surfaces

Publicerad i

Hydrological Processes
2015, Volym: 29, nummer: 7, sidor: 1829-1843
Utgivare: WILEY-BLACKWELL

SLU författare

• Oni, Stephen

  • Institutionen för skogens ekologi och skötsel, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    
  • Institutionen för vatten och miljö, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

• Futter, Martyn

  • Institutionen för vatten och miljö, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

Globala målen

SDG6 Säkerställa tillgången till och en hållbar förvaltning av vatten och sanitet för alla
SDG13 Vidta omedelbara åtgärder för att bekämpa klimatförändringarna och dess konsekvenser
SDG11 Göra städer och bosättningar inkluderande, säkra, motståndskraftiga och hållbara


UKÄ forskningsämne

Oceanografi, hydrologi, vattenresurser


Publikationens identifierare

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10290

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/68569