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Forskningsartikel2017Vetenskapligt granskadÖppen tillgång

Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050

Roos, Elin; Bajzelj, Bojana; Smith, Pete; Patel, Mikaela; Little, David; Garnett, Tara

Sammanfattning

Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different 'protein futures'. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today's species mix; intensive efficient poultry-dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture-dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on 'ecological leftovers' (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a 'plant-based eating' scenario. For each scenario, 'projected diet' and 'healthy diet' variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14-86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO2 in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The 'ecological leftover' scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.

Nyckelord

Land use; Climate; Food; Dietary change; Mitigation; Protein

Publicerad i

Regional Environmental Change
2017, Volym: 17, nummer: 2, sidor: 367-377
Utgivare: SPRINGER HEIDELBERG

      Associerade SLU-program

      Food Waste

      Globala målen

      SDG2 Avskaffa hunger, uppnå tryggad livsmedelsförsörjning och förbättrad nutrition samt främja ett hållbart jordbruk
      SDG12 Säkerställa hållbara konsumtions- och produktionsmönster
      SDG13 Vidta omedelbara åtgärder för att bekämpa klimatförändringarna och dess konsekvenser
      SDG15 Skydda, återställa och främja ett hållbart nyttjande av landbaserade ekosystem, hållbart bruka skogar, bekämpa ökenspridning, hejda och vrida tillbaka markförstöringen samt hejda förlusten av biologisk mångfald

      UKÄ forskningsämne

      Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap

      Publikationens identifierare

      DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1013-4

      Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

      https://res.slu.se/id/publ/86030