Futter, Martyn
- Institutionen för vatten och miljö, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
Sammanfattning
In this study, we present evidence for a hydrological regime shift in upland central European forests. Using a combination of long-term data, detailed field measurements and modelling, we show that there is a prolonged and persistent decline in annual runoff:precipitation ratios that is most likely linked to longer growing seasons. We performed a long term (1950-2018) water balance simulation for a Czech upland forest headwater catchment calibrated against measured streamflow and transpiration from deciduous and coniferous stands. Simulations were corroborated by long-term (1965-2018) borehole measurements and historical drought reports. A regime shift from positive to negative catchment water balances likely occurred in the early part of this century. Since 2007, annual runoff:precipitation ratios have been below the long-term average. Annual average temperatures have increased, but there have been no notable long term trends in precipitation. Since 1980, there has been a pronounced April warming, likely leading to earlier leaf out and higher annual transpiration, making water unavailable for runoff generation and/or soil moisture recharge. Our results suggest a regime shift due to second order effects of climate change where increased transpiration associated with a longer growing season leads to a shift from light to water limitation in central European forests. This will require new approaches to managing forests where water limitation has previously not been a problem.
Nyckelord
forest hydrology; tipping point; water balance modelling
Publicerad i
Forests
2021, volym: 12, nummer: 12, artikelnummer: 1656
Utgivare: MDPI
SLU författare
Globala målen (SDG)
SDG6 Rent vatten och sanitet för alla
SDG13 Bekämpa klimatförändringarna
UKÄ forskningsämne
Oceanografi, hydrologi, vattenresurser
Klimatvetenskap
Skogsvetenskap
Publikationens identifierare
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/f12121656
Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/115719