Schulte, Maximilian
- Institutionen för energi och teknik, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
- Wageningen University and Research
Sammanfattning
The forest sector's climate change mitigation depends on forest carbon sequestration, storing carbon in wood products, and avoidance of fossil greenhouse gas emissions by replacing more emission intensive products or energy sources, i.e., the substitution effect. In addition, market responses to changes in wood supply following altered forest management by one region induce climate relevant changes in form of compensatory roundwood harvest outside the region, and thus forest carbon leakage. This study presents a global climate change mitigation assessment of the forest sector, accounting for market-effects leakage. We use a global forest sector model, wood flow analysis and life cycle inventory data to assess the impact of forest management changes on climate change mitigation, with a focus on Sweden. Results suggest decreased wood harvesting causes global net climate change mitigation until 2070, despite forest carbon leakage, forgone wood product carbon storage and forgone substitution effect potentials. Increasing domestic wood removals induces global additional emissions until 2100. Additional domestic wood product consumption is climate beneficial which however depends on substitution effects actually materializing. Roundwood harvest leakage ranges from 40 % to 60 % and forest carbon leakage from 50 % to 80 %. Leakage effects occur mainly in North America and Asia, with a gradual shift towards Latin America over time. To further the climate benefit, drivers of growing demand should be addressed and measures be implemented which promote more efficient and sustainable use of wood as a resource. Only concerted global forest policy cooperation would avoid leakage and with that result in improved global climate change mitigation.
Nyckelord
Forest sector; Climate change mitigation; Substitution effects; Leakage effects; Trade; Wood products
Publicerad i
Journal of Environmental Management
2025, volym: 393, artikelnummer: 127193
SLU författare
Eggers, Jeannette
- Institutionen för skoglig resurshushållning, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
- Institutionen för skoglig resurshushållning, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
Jonsson, Ragnar
- Institutionen för energi och teknik, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
- Institutionen för energi och teknik, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
UKÄ forskningsämne
Skogsvetenskap
Publikationens identifierare
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.127193
Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/143648