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Assessment of short-term trends in the area of habitat types is an important part of the overall assessment in Article 17 reporting. According to guidelines, this assessment should employ statistically robust methods. In Sweden, the national forest inventory (NFI) has been registering Annex I forest habitat types since 2008 and can therefore serve as a data source for assessing short-term trends.

For the assessment of the short-term trend over a 12-year period, we compared average area estimates and their associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) from two 5-year periods with mid-years 2010 and 2021. An ‘increasing’ or ‘decreasing’ short-term trend was identified if the 95% CI of the difference in area estimates excluded zero. If the 95% CI of the difference included zero, the trend was assessed as ‘stable’. However, for very uncertain estimates, the short-term trends were assessed as ‘uncertain’.

Short-term trends were primarily assessed for wide-ranging forest habitat types, most of which were classified as ‘stable’. Of the 30 forest habitat type–region combinations in Sweden, four were initially assessed as ‘increasing’ (including Western taiga (9010) and Bog woodland (91D0) in the Boreal region). However, in some cases, directional trends, particularly those based on small sample sizes, were re-evaluated as ‘uncertain’ because they were likely influenced by sampling variability during the inventory period. For less common forest habitat types, as well as many habitat types within the Natura 2000 network, short-term trends were assessed as ‘uncertain’ or ‘unknown’ due to insufficient data. Furthermore, because temperate broad-leaved forest habitat types are generally rare, they were analysed collectively, and the resulting short-term trend in area was proposed as a possible solution to improve the reliability of trend estimates for these habitat types.

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Utgivare: SLU Artdatabanken, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet

SLU författare

UKÄ forskningsämne

Zoologi
Ekologi
Botanik

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https://res.slu.se/id/publ/144404