Skip to main content
SLU:s publikationsdatabas (SLUpub)

Sammanfattning

Crop yields depend on climatic conditions such as precipitation and temperature and their timing before and during the growing season. At high latitudes, climate change could lengthen the growing season and lead to temperatures more suitable for crops but also expose crops to more frequent damaging conditions. We quantified the response of regionally averaged winter and spring cereal yields in Sweden for 1965-2020 to a wide set of ecophysiologically-meaningful climatic descriptors. With statistical models, we explored the role of both short-term and average conditions over different crop developmental stages, as well as of a proxy of water availability during the period prior to the main growing season. Temperature and precipitation or dry spell lengths for the entire growing season explained 75 %-85 % of yield variability, performing better than shorter-term potentially damaging conditions such as number of days with precipitation above 20 mm or temperatures above 25 degrees C. Low precipitation or extended dry spells combined with high temperatures and, conversely, high precipitation sums with cool temperatures were associated with reduced yields for all crops. Our findings suggest that under climate change crop yields will be reduced in Sweden, unless warming is accompanied by increase in precipitation during the main growing season. With unaltered or reduced growing season precipitation, benefiting from warmer temperatures caused by climate change will require adaptation measures.

Publicerad i

Biogeosciences
2026, volym: 23, nummer: 7, sidor: 2583-2599

SLU författare

UKÄ forskningsämne

Jordbruksvetenskap
Multidisciplinär geovetenskap

Publikationens identifierare

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2583-2026

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/146997