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Sammanfattning

This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and discusses implications for the Swedish forest sector. Four possible futures, or scenarios, are considered, based on qualitative scenario analysis. The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with respect to two highly influential factors driving change in global wood-product markets, whose future development is unpredictable. These so-called critical uncertainties were found to be degrees to which: (i) current patterns of globalization will continue, or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii) concern about the environment, particularly climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize. The overall future of the Swedish solid wood-product industry looks bright, irrespective of which of the four possible futures occurs, provided it accommodates the expected growth in demand for factory-made, energy-efficient construction components. The prospects for the pulp and paper industry in Sweden appear more ambiguous. Globalization is increasingly shifting production and consumption to the Southern hemisphere, adversely affecting employment and forest owners in Sweden. Further, technical progress in information and communication technology (ICT) is expected to lead to drastic reductions in demand for newsprint and printing paper. Chemical pulp producers may profit from a growing bio-energy industry, since they could manufacture new, high-value products in integrated bio-refineries. Mechanical pulp producers cannot do this, however, and might suffer from higher prices for raw materials and electricity.

Nyckelord

future; global; wood products; scenario analysis; critical uncertainties; pulp and paper; globalization; construction component; ICT

Publicerad i

Forests
2011, volym: 2, nummer: 1, sidor: 147-167
Utgivare: MDPI AG

SLU författare

Associerade SLU-program

SLU Future Forests

Globala målen (SDG)

SDG7 Hållbar energi för alla
SDG8 Anständiga arbetsvillkor och ekonomisk tillväxt
SDG11 Hållbara städer och samhällen
SDG13 Bekämpa klimatförändringarna

UKÄ forskningsämne

Skogsvetenskap

Publikationens identifierare

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/f2010147

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/47712