The potential effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of insect pest species in the Swedish boreal forest

Sammanfattning

With the expected rising temperatures, outbreaks of insect pests may be more frequent, which can have large consequences on forest ecosystems and may therefore negatively affect the forestry sector. In order to be better able to predict where, but not if, outbreaks may occur in future we investigated the potential future (2070) geographical distribution of 30 prospective insect pest species (Coleoptera and Lepidoptera) by applying species distribution modelling. We also assessed the geographical extent to which the boreal forest in Sweden may be affected. We found that numerous species may experience large increases in their potential distribution in future, which may result in outbreaks in new areas. It is therefore likely that more trees will be infested by pests in future, which may have large implications for the Swedish forestry sector.

Nyckelord

climate change; forestry; insects; Norway spruce; pests; Scots pine; species distribution modelling

Publicerad i

Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research
2016, volym: 31, nummer: 1, sidor: 29-39

SLU författare

• Hof, Anouschka

  • Institutionen för vilt, fisk och miljö, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    
  • Umeå Universitet

Globala målen (SDG)

SDG13 Bekämpa klimatförändringarna

UKÄ forskningsämne

Miljövetenskap
Ekologi

Publikationens identifierare

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02827581.2015.1052751

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/79576