Modelling the effects of changing climate and nitrogen deposition on nitrate dynamics in a Scottish mountain catchment

Sammanfattning

The effect of changing climate and N deposition on montane ecosystems is a topic of considerable importance. Mountains are vulnerable environments and their ecosystems are often in a delicate balance. An application of the INCA-N model is presented to simulate current-day nitrate dynamics in a Scottish mountain lake and to project the possible future effects of climate change and reductions in N deposition on lake nitrate concentration ([NO(3)(-)]). The INCA-N model is calibrated using data from 1996-2006 in an attempt to determine the controls on [NO(3)(-)] in Lochnagar and process sensitivities to changing climate. Predictions were sensitive to hydrologic, vegetation-related and in-soil processes. Over the longer term, surface water [NO(3)(-)] in this mountain ecosystem is expected to increase. From 2020 to 2100, when N deposition is modelled at a constant rate, warmer temperature exerts a stronger effect on N losses to the lake surface than the N deposition. While the effects of a warming climate are projected to lead to increased surface water [NO(3)(-)], concentrations are not projected to either return to, or exceed, historical levels.

Nyckelord

climate change; Lochnagar; modeling; mountain lakes; nitrate; water quality

Publicerad i

Hydrology research
2009, volym: 40, nummer: 2-3, sidor: 153-166
Utgivare: IWA PUBLISHING

SLU författare

• Futter, Martyn

  • The Macaulay Land Use Research Institute

UKÄ forskningsämne

Miljövetenskap

Publikationens identifierare

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2009.073

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/83804