Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits

Sammanfattning

Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrstrom area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

Nyckelord

Functional traits; Ecosystem services; Climate change; Species distribution modeling; Wetlands; Sweden

Publicerad i

AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment
2015, volym: 44, nummer: Suppl 1, sidor: S113-S126
Utgivare: SPRINGER

SLU författare

• Moor, Helen

  • Stockholms Universitet

UKÄ forskningsämne

Ekologi

Publikationens identifierare

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-014-0593-9

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/86877