Sammanfattning

The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of traded quantities and trade unit values to agricultural production shocks. We develop a general equilibrium model of trade in which production shocks in exporting countries affect both traded quantities and trade unit values. The model includes per-unit trade costs and develops a methodology to quantify their size exploiting the trade unit value data. Using bilateral trade flow data for a large sample of countries and agricultural commodities, we find that the intensive margin of trade is relatively inelastic to production shocks, with a 1 per cent increase in production leading to a 0.5 per cent increase in exports. We also find that per-unit trade costs are large, comprising 15-20 per cent of import unit values on average. Overall, our results suggest that there is room for improving trade as a mechanism for coping with food production volatility.

Nyckelord

food production volatility; trade costs; agricultural trade; gravity model

Publicerad i

European Review of Agricultural Economics
2020, Volym: 47, nummer: 3, sidor: 1094-1132

SLU författare

• Ferguson, Shon

  • Institutionen för ekonomi, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    
  • Institutet för Näringslivsforskning

Globala målen

SDG2 Ingen hunger
SDG17 Genomförande och globalt partnerskap


UKÄ forskningsämne

Nationalekonomi


Publikationens identifierare

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbz013

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/101560