A tale of two stations: a note on rejecting the Gumbel distribution

Sammanfattning

The existence of an upper limit for extremes of quantities in the earth sciences, e.g. for river discharge or wind speed, is sometimes suggested. Estimated parameters in extreme-value distributions can assist in interpreting the behaviour of the system. Using simulation, this study investigated how sample size influences the results of statistical tests and related interpretations. Commonly used estimation techniques (maximum likelihood and probability-weighted moments) were employed in a case study; the results were applied in judging time series of annual maximum river flow from two stations on the same river, but with different lengths of observation records. The results revealed that sample size is crucial for determining the existence of an upper bound.

Nyckelord

Extreme values; River discharge; GEV distribution; Sample size; Bootstrap

Publicerad i

Acta Geophysica
2023, Volym: 71, nummer: 1, sidor: 385-390 Utgivare: SPRINGER INT PUBL AG

SLU författare

• Rydén, Jesper

  • Institutionen för energi och teknik, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

UKÄ forskningsämne

Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
Vattenteknik


Publikationens identifierare

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00852-1

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/118587