Cenários climáticos e produtividade do algodão no nordeste do brasil. parte II: Simulação para 2020 a 2080

Sammanfattning

This paper had as its primary objective the generation of future climatic scenarios and the evaluation of impacts over the productivity of upland cotton through an agrometeorological model, when compared to the current productivity observed. A statistical downscaling was used to obtain the future series of meteorological variables needed for the cal- culation of productivity, obtained with an agrometeorological model appropriately calibrated for the reality of cotton in the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil. The time series of the meteorological variables had their flaws properly com- pleted and went through a rigorous quality control system. The future projections calculated for the climatic scenarios A1B and A2, of the models ECHAM5-OM and HadGEM2-ES were unanimous in pointing out the significant reduction in rainfall and temperature rising. The evapotranspiration, consequently, also presents an upward trend for the future horizon studied, from 2020 to 2080. As impact for the cotton crop, is predicted, for the 23 studied municipalities of the northeast semi-arid, a significant reduction in productivity, which can be reduced to approximately half of the current observed productivity.

Nyckelord

Agrometeorological model; Cotton yield; Statistical downscaling

Publicerad i

Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia
2020, Volym: 35, sidor: 913-929 Utgivare: Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia

SLU författare

• Monteiro, Leonardo

  • Institutionen för växtproduktionsekologi, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

UKÄ forskningsämne

Klimatforskning
Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning


Publikationens identifierare

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-77863550102

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/129878