Proximal microclimate: Moving beyond spatiotemporal resolution improves ecological predictions

Sammanfattning

AimThe scale of environmental data is often defined by their extent (spatial area, temporal duration) and resolution (grain size, temporal interval). Although describing climate data scale via these terms is appropriate for most meteorological applications, for ecology and biogeography, climate data of the same spatiotemporal resolution and extent may differ in their relevance to an organism. Here, we propose that climate proximity, or how well climate data represent the actual conditions that an organism is exposed to, is more important for ecological realism than the spatiotemporal resolution of the climate data.LocationTemperature comparison in nine countries across four continents; ecological case studies in Alberta (Canada), Sabah (Malaysia) and North Carolina/Tennessee (USA).Time Period1960-2018.Major Taxa StudiedCase studies with flies, mosquitoes and salamanders, but concepts relevant to all life on earth.MethodsWe compare the accuracy of two macroclimate data sources (ERA5 and WorldClim) and a novel microclimate model (microclimf) in predicting soil temperatures. We then use ERA5, WorldClim and microclimf to drive ecological models in three case studies: temporal (fly phenology), spatial (mosquito thermal suitability) and spatiotemporal (salamander range shifts) ecological responses.ResultsFor predicting soil temperatures, microclimf had 24.9% and 16.4% lower absolute bias than ERA5 and WorldClim respectively. Across the case studies, we find that increasing proximity (from macroclimate to microclimate) yields a 247% improvement in performance of ecological models on average, compared to 18% and 9% improvements from increasing spatial resolution 20-fold, and temporal resolution 30-fold respectively.Main ConclusionsWe propose that increasing climate proximity, even if at the sacrifice of finer climate spatiotemporal resolution, may improve ecological predictions. We emphasize biophysically informed approaches, rather than generic formulations, when quantifying ecoclimatic relationships. Redefining the scale of climate through the lens of the organism itself helps reveal mechanisms underlying how climate shapes ecological systems.

Nyckelord

biophysical ecology; climate change; ecophysiology; macroclimate; microclimate; nonlinearity; resolution; species distribution model

Publicerad i

Global Ecology and Biogeography
2024,
Utgivare: WILEY

SLU författare

• Greiser, Caroline

  • Institutionen för skogens ekologi och skötsel, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    
  • Stockholms Universitet

UKÄ forskningsämne

Ekologi
Fysisk geografi


Publikationens identifierare

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13884

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/131230