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Forskningsartikel2009Vetenskapligt granskad

Distributional Assumptions in Chance Constrained Programming Models of Stochastic Water Pollution

Kataria Mitesh, Elofsson Katarina, Hasler Berit

Sammanfattning

In the water management literature both the normal and log-normal distribution are commonly used to model stochastic water pollution. The normality assumption is usually motivated by the central limit theorem, while the log-normality assumption is often motivated by the need to avoid the possibility of negative pollution loads. We utilize the truncated normal distribution as an alternative to these distributions. Using probabilistic constraints in a cost-minimization model for the Baltic Sea, we show that the distribution assumption bias is between 1% and 60%. Simulations show that a greater difference is to be expected for data with a higher degree of truncation. Using the normal distribution instead of the truncated normal distribution leads to an underestimation of the true cost. On the contrary, the difference in cost when using the normal versus the log-normal can be positive as well as negative.

Nyckelord

Cost effectiveness; Water pollution; Chance-constrained programming; Log-normal distribution; Truncated normal distribution

Publicerad i

Environmental Modeling and Assessment
2009, Volym: 15, nummer: 4, sidor: 1-9
Utgivare: Springer

    Globala målen

    Säkerställa tillgången till och en hållbar förvaltning av vatten och sanitet för alla
    Bevara och nyttja haven och de marina resurserna på ett hållbart sätt för en hållbar utveckling

    UKÄ forskningsämne

    Fisk- och akvakulturforskning
    Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap

    Publikationens identifierare

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-009-9205-7

    Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

    https://res.slu.se/id/publ/28972