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Research article2005Peer reviewed

Modelling the spread of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in day-care and evaluation of intervention

Andersson, Mikael; Ekdahl, Karl; Mölstad, Sigvard; Persson, Kristina; Hansson, Hans Bertil; Giesecke, Johan


In 1995, a disease control and intervention project was initiated in Malmöhus county in southern Sweden to limit the spread of penicillin-resistant pneumococci. Since most of the carriers of pneumococci are preschool children, and since most of the spread is believed to take place in day-care, a mathematical model, in the form of a stochastic process, for the spread in a day-care group was constructed. Effects of seasonal variation and size of the day-care group were particularly considered. The model was then used for comparing results from computer simulations without and with intervention. Results indicate that intervention is highly effective in day-care groups with more than ten children during the second half of the year


epidemic model; stochastic process; infectious disease; pneumococci; disease intervention

Published in

Statistics in Medicine
2005, Volume: 24, number: 23, pages: 3593-3607

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