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Forskningsartikel2018Vetenskapligt granskadÖppen tillgång

Forest Carbon Sequestration, Pathogens and the Costs of the EU's 2050 Climate Targets

Gren, Ing-Marie; Aklilu, Abenezer Zeleke; Elofsson, Katarina

Sammanfattning

Carbon sequestration is suggested as a low-cost option for climate change mitigation, the functioning of which can be threatened by pathogen infestation. This study calculates the effects of infectious pathogens on the cost of achieving the EU's 2050 climate targets by combining the so-called production function method with the replacement cost method. Pathogens are then assumed to affect carbon sink enhancement through the impact on productivity of forest land, and carbon sequestration is valued as the replacement for costly reductions in emissions from fossil fuels for reaching the EU's 2050 climate targets. To this end, we have constructed a numerical dynamic optimization model with a logistic forest growth function, a simple allometric representation of the spread of pathogens in forests, and reductions in emissions from fossil fuels. The results show that the annual value of forest carbon sequestration ranges between approximately 6.4 and 14.9 billion Euros, depending on the impact and dispersal of pathogens. Relatively large values are obtained for countries with large emissions from fossil fuels, e.g., Germany, France, Spain and Italy, which also face costs of pathogen together with countries with large forest area, such as Romania.

Nyckelord

value of forest carbon sink; forest pathogen; climate policy; cost-effectiveness; EU climate targets

Publicerad i

Forests
2018, Volym: 9, nummer: 9, artikelnummer: 542
Utgivare: MDPI

      SLU författare

        • Associerade SLU-program

        SLU Nätverk växtskydd

        Globala målen

        SDG12 Hållbar konsumtion och produktion
        SDG13 Bekämpa klimatförändringarna

        UKÄ forskningsämne

        Skogsvetenskap

        Publikationens identifierare

        DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/f9090542

        Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

        https://res.slu.se/id/publ/97065