Skip to main content
SLU:s publikationsdatabas (SLUpub)

Forskningsartikel2011Vetenskapligt granskadÖppen tillgång

Trends and Possible Future Developments in Global Forest-Product Markets-Implications for the Swedish Forest Sector

Jonsson, Ragnar

Sammanfattning

This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and discusses implications for the Swedish forest sector. Four possible futures, or scenarios, are considered, based on qualitative scenario analysis. The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with respect to two highly influential factors driving change in global wood-product markets, whose future development is unpredictable. These so-called critical uncertainties were found to be degrees to which: (i) current patterns of globalization will continue, or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii) concern about the environment, particularly climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize. The overall future of the Swedish solid wood-product industry looks bright, irrespective of which of the four possible futures occurs, provided it accommodates the expected growth in demand for factory-made, energy-efficient construction components. The prospects for the pulp and paper industry in Sweden appear more ambiguous. Globalization is increasingly shifting production and consumption to the Southern hemisphere, adversely affecting employment and forest owners in Sweden. Further, technical progress in information and communication technology (ICT) is expected to lead to drastic reductions in demand for newsprint and printing paper. Chemical pulp producers may profit from a growing bio-energy industry, since they could manufacture new, high-value products in integrated bio-refineries. Mechanical pulp producers cannot do this, however, and might suffer from higher prices for raw materials and electricity.

Nyckelord

future; global; wood products; scenario analysis; critical uncertainties; pulp and paper; globalization; construction component; ICT

Publicerad i

Forests
2011, Volym: 2, nummer: 1, sidor: 147-167
Utgivare: MDPI AG

    Associerade SLU-program

    SLU Future Forests

    Globala målen

    Säkerställa tillgång till ekonomiskt överkomlig, tillförlitlig, hållbar och modern energi för alla
    Verka för varaktig, inkluderande och hållbar ekonomisk tillväxt, full och produktiv sysselsättning med anständiga arbetsvillkor för alla
    Göra städer och bosättningar inkluderande, säkra, motståndskraftiga och hållbara
    Vidta omedelbara åtgärder för att bekämpa klimatförändringarna och dess konsekvenser

    UKÄ forskningsämne

    Skogsvetenskap

    Publikationens identifierare

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/f2010147

    Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

    https://res.slu.se/id/publ/47712