Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the population viability of an epixylic moss

Sammanfattning

5. Synthesis. Statements about the viability of populations should not be based on point estimates of log lambda(S). Instead, the full probability distribution of log lambda(S) should be used, which explicitly accounts for the hierarchically structured natural variability and uncertainty. This distribution allows estimating the risk for a population decline, or providing an estimate of the confidence in a statement about a decline. This quantitative information can be weighed against other interests. We expect this Bayesian approach to be especially useful in the viability analysis of natural populations experiencing environmental variability.

Nyckelord

bryophyte; climate; environmental stochasticity; hierarchical Bayesian model; plant population and community dynamics; plant-climate interactions; population viability; stochastic growth rate; uncertainty

Publicerad i

Journal of Ecology
2012, volym: 100, nummer: 2, sidor: 499-507
Utgivare: WILEY-BLACKWELL

SLU författare

• Ruete, Alejandro

  • Institutionen för ekologi, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

• Snäll, Tord

  • Institutionen för ekologi, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

UKÄ forskningsämne

Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap

Publikationens identifierare

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01887.x

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/56356